Previously we reported that Realtor.com recorded a $21,400 jump in value of TMP house on Valencia in one month:

TheMonopolyProject (TMP) showed a huge $8,690 jump due to increases in the estimated value by Zillow and Realtor. Over $21,000 in the case of Realtor.com! In one month!

We did our own quick analysis using the “comp” method:

“When pricing a residential single-family listing, most agents’ first step is to look at the recent sales of comparable properties in the same neighborhood; about the same size; on a similar piece of land; and with similar features, like views, amenities and updates.”

There is one direct comparable listing in that subdivision that just sold:

6436 W BRANHAM LN. Laveen, AZ 85339 – $223,000, $156/SF

And three closed sales since Feb 2020:

The comps above indicate a $150-$155/SF range.

The TMP house on Valencia is 1,430 square feet (SF) so the calculated selling price based on comps is:

1,430 SF x $155/SF = $221,650

For the 13-month holding period: $197,900 purchase price versus $221,650 = +12% increase; +11% annualized.

When we started TMP we estimated 6% annual price increases in the general Phoenix market. But now we are seeing almost twice that? We attribute that to three reasons:

  1. The Phoenix housing market is hot: “Unprecedented demand pushes Phoenix home price gains to No. 1 in US”
  2. The COVID19 crisis helps Phoenix compared to other metropolitan areas that are harder hit by the pandemic.
  3. The Laveen area is improving due to the 202 Freeway being extended. That was one of the factors in targeting that area.

The Phoenix housing market is in a “Frenzy” as Broker Jeff Sutherlin explains: “Market Update: It’s July and its a frenzy out there!”